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Tesla's third-quarter delivery figures have fallen short of analyst expectations, sparking concerns about the company's market position amid intensifying global competition. The EV pioneer reported delivering 462,890 vehicles in Q3 2024, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous quarter but failing to meet the consensus estimate of 469,828 vehicles, according to data from 12 analysts polled by LSEG.
Market analyst Sarah Chen from Morgan Stanley notes, "The shortfall reflects broader challenges in the EV landscape, particularly in key markets like China and Europe." This sentiment was echoed in Tesla's stock performance, with shares dropping over 6% in morning trading following the announcement.
Breaking down the numbers, Tesla delivered 439,975 units of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, while other models, including the Model S, Cybertruck, and Model X, accounted for 22,915 deliveries. Production figures slightly exceeded deliveries at 469,796 vehicles for the quarter.
The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically, especially in China, where domestic manufacturers are gaining ground. BYD, Tesla's primary rival, reported 443,426 battery electric vehicle deliveries in the same quarter. "Local players are leveraging government subsidies and aggressive pricing strategies to capture market share," explains automotive industry consultant Michael Zhang.
European markets have posed additional challenges. BMW surprisingly overtook Tesla in European battery electric vehicle sales in July 2024, according to JATO Dynamics. The absence of regional subsidies and growing consumer interest in hybrid vehicles have contributed to Tesla's struggles in the region.
To maintain its 2023 delivery levels of 1.81 million vehicles, Tesla now faces the daunting task of achieving record-breaking deliveries of 516,344 vehicles in Q4. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives comments, "This target appears increasingly challenging given current market dynamics and consumer preferences."
Despite these headwinds, some analysts remain optimistic. "The return to quarterly growth, albeit modest, suggests Tesla's recent incentives are having some impact," states Hargreaves Lansdown senior equity analyst Matt Britzman. The company has implemented various promotional strategies, including zero-interest financing and insurance offers, particularly in the Chinese market which represents approximately one-third of Tesla's sales.
WhileTesla prepares for its October 10 event in Los Angeles, where it's expected to unveil its robotaxi product, the company appears to be pivoting towards AI-powered autonomous technologies. This strategic shift comes at a crucial time as the automaker navigates an increasingly competitive EV landscape and works to maintain its position as the world's most valuable automaker.
