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In the wake of a dramatic mutiny, Russia has effectively dismantled and replaced the Wagner Group, a paramilitary force that once shocked the world. Led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group crossed into the Russian city of Rostov from Ukraine on June 23, 2023, seizing the city almost unopposed. Their subsequent charge toward Moscow met little resistance, but it abruptly ended after Prigozhin called off the advance. Just two months later, tragedy struck when Prigozhin's plane crashed, killing him and several other senior Wagner members, leaving the group's future uncertain.
Dr. Sorcha MacLeod, a member of the UN's working group on mercenaries, explained that ex-Wagner troops have fragmented across the Russian state. While the Wagner Group may not exist in exactly the same form as before, versions of it persist, dispersed throughout Russia. There is no single overall controller, but its geopolitical and economic importance to Russia ensures its continuity.
For years, Prigozhin's forces served as a valuable and deniable tool for Russian operations in Africa and Syria. However, it was in Ukraine that Wagner came into the open. Throughout late 2022 and early 2023, Wagner played a crucial role in Russia's battlefield victories. Its forces, largely composed of ex-prisoners, managed to take the eastern city of Soledar before becoming entrenched in intense fighting in Bakhmut. At its peak, Wagner had around 50,000 mercenaries in Ukraine, according to the US National Security Council.
Now, experts believe that Wagner's operations in Ukraine have been absorbed by other Russian state and paramilitary units. Some of the group's infantry units have reportedly joined the Rosgvardia, or National Guard, controlled by Putin's former bodyguard, Viktor Zolotov. The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed that elements of the Wagner Group came under National Guard control in October 2023. These ex-Wagner troops were either deployed to Ukraine on six-month contracts or sent to Africa on nine-month contracts.
A year after the mutiny, the Kremlin has reasserted control over the remnants of the Wagner Group. While the group's structure may have changed, its impact on Russian operations remains significant, albeit in different forms and under different banners.
