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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified rising trade tensions and a potential reversal in the artificial intelligence boom as the primary risks to global economic stability. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF described current growth as "steady" and "resilient," though it warned that these underlying vulnerabilities could derail progress. Notably, the report was finalized before President Trump’s weekend threat to impose tariffs on eight European nations involved in the Greenland sovereignty dispute.
The fund also said the independence of central banks was "paramount" for global economic stability and growth. The economic watchdog said global growth was projected to reach 3.3% this year - an increase from its previous forecast of 3.1% - before slowing slightly to 3.2% in 2027.
In an interview, IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas said: "We have a picture of a global economy that is growing at - it's not outsized growth rates but it's quite resilient, quite robust.
"In a sense the global economy has been shaking off the trade disruptions of 2025, and it's coming out ahead of what we were expecting."
He said while the effects of Trump's tariffs has been "definitely to slow down global activity", he added that there "have been other things that have been more than offsetting".
The IMF's report says the global economy has been helped by "tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence".
However, it said risks to the global outlook "remain tilted to the downside", warning that if expectations about AI growth turn out to be overly optimistic an abrupt market correction could be triggered.
Even a relatively mild market correction could have an impact, Gourinchas said, given how much share price gains have contributed to wealth gains in recent years. Other risks are emerging as firms increasingly take on debt to make AI investments.
