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Starting Friday, China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African nations, expanding a policy that previously only applied to 33 least-developed countries. The move covers the entire continent with the exception of Eswatini, which Beijing excluded due to its diplomatic ties with Taiwan. This unilateral duty-free status is scheduled to remain in effect until April 30, 2028, though China has not specified its plans beyond that date.
But analysts say that while China is seizing the chance to enhance its soft power, they point out that tariffs are rarely the main obstacle for exporters in Africa which has a huge trade deficit with China.
Analysts say the expansion of China's zero-tariff regime could increase African agricultural exports, which will help to elevate rural incomes, improve rural productivity, and ultimately to reduce hunger and poverty. But Sino-African trade is marked by a growing imbalance in China's favour, which means Chinese exports to Africa far exceed African exports to China, and that difference is widening.
Last year, Africa's trade deficit with China rose by 65% to about $102bn.
Africa's exports to China are dominated by minerals and raw materials, such as crude oil and metallic ores. Currently, China's main trading partners in the region include Angola, driven primarily by oil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa.
However, a consistent duty-free regime across such a heterogeneous continent could result in uneven gains, Johnston notes.
More developed, industrialised economies like South Africa and Morocco will be better positioned to expand exports, she says.
The analysts believe the exclusion of Eswatini is a political move with limited economic impact.
The landlocked nation in southern Africa is among just 12 countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province that will eventually be "reunited" with China.
Many in Taiwan, a self-governed island, consider themselves to already be part of a sovereign nation.
Last month, Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te had to cancel a trip to Eswatini after three other African countries – Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar – barred his aircraft from flying over their territories. Taiwan has accused them of doing so under "intense pressure" and economic coercion from China.
